‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.