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A recent study indicates that stringent migration policies implemented by governments worldwide have significantly benefited people smugglers, driving up demand and allowing them to raise their prices.

Major Insights Informed by Tens of Thousands of Interviews

The results, drawn from conversations with thousands of migrants and hundreds smugglers, are being shared as policymakers prepare to gather to debate strategies to combat smuggling rings.

“Governments say they want to ‘destroy the business model’ of smugglers, but our data shows the exact opposite is occurring,” stated a project director leading the study.

The analysis draws on in excess of 80,000 interviews with individuals migrating across the globe. More than 50,000 respondents reported using smugglers, with a significant number attributing their choice to the lack of feasible pathways for legal migration.

Smugglers Report Growing Demand As a Result of Harsher Measures

Researchers also spoke with 458 smugglers in West and North Africa. “A significant number smugglers informed us that tighter border measures is actually fuelling demand,” explained a lead researcher.

A case in point examined smugglers interviewed on the central Mediterranean route. Despite the fact that irregular arrivals fell in one recent year, close to 50% of the smugglers reported demand for their services had risen, partly because of stricter enforcement. “Instead of disrupting their business model, it is being boosted.”

• Fee Increases: Among the smugglers interviewed, 57% reported they had raised their fees.
• Key Driver: The vast majority of them linked the higher prices to the heightened peril they faced due to hardline migration policies.
• Corruption Links: Close to 50% of smugglers acknowledged being in touch with state agents such as police, suggesting common collusion.

Drivers of Movement and the Influence of Traffickers

Despite common claims that smugglers actively recruit people into unauthorized journeys, only 6% of the respondents said smugglers had shaped their decision.

Rather, the vast majority of them indicated the decision had been a personal one or had been shaped by family or friends who were living overseas.

The study identified who was more inclined to use smugglers, noting that those escaping insecurity and limitations on their fundamental freedoms commonly did, as did those embarking on more dangerous routes.

“The evidence makes it clear that smugglers were not the cause of unauthorized movement,” said a research director. “Instead, the report highlights the absence of safe and legal options to clarify why people use smugglers.”

Consequences for Policymakers

Advocates have consistently argued that through limiting legal migration pathways such as family reunion, policymakers are pushing people towards smugglers.

“Whenever legal options shrink, the role of smugglers rises,” the report concludes. “If policymakers don’t address the reasons people use smugglers, they ultimately empower the same rings they’re aiming to dismantle.”