Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.