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On occasions when the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects problems.

That is when large aerial objects are launched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes hanging beneath.

Over the recent period, this smuggling operation has forced Lithuania's primary air hub into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are certain they are confronting something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian administration has announced an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Naturally it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to have an effect on bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, security forces head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.

Units set up temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any company that can develop how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."