Past the Pageantry of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: An India-Russia Relationship Which Has Weakened.
This diplomatic language and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest visit to India projected a robust two-way partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the statesmen took a car journey, echoing a known political gesture. In his address, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the India-Russia connection as a "lodestar", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's tenth trip to India during his 25-year rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter took the premiership in 2014.
A Gap Separating Symbolism and Substance
Nevertheless, a noticeable divide exists between the ceremony and the actual content of this partnership. While Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact buying less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two nations concluded a series of memorandums of understanding covering migration, health, agriculture, naval cooperation, and academic exchanges. But, anticipated revelations on significant military deals did not materialize. India has not concluded any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by holdups in shipments of platforms and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own wartime needs.
A Partnership With Diminished Geopolitical Heft
These developments suggests that the India-Russia dynamic no longer holds the same strategic clout it once did. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This unique alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both nations have attempted to preserve a semblance of this special tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their interaction does not have the former significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the West.
Broadening and Inherent Tensions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its important relationship with Moscow. But, as external pressure mounts on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to diversify the relationship into new areas. On Putin's visit, they unveiled an joint economic programme extending until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This involves enhancing market access for Indian goods to address a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers several key strategic fields – from space and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.
Ideological Bonds and Perceived Reliability
At an sentimental plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, especially among senior generations of officials in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial support during the earlier era. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During recent frictions between India and the US, in which American leaders have issued critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more reliable partner.
This key difficulty, of course, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, despite it ironically referred to the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the conflict have been limited.
Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Global Tightrope
This dynamic does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's international stance. The country is poised to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, after a similar pact with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.
How will India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a end of hostilities and the elimination of a key irritant in its ties with the Western bloc. However, even if a peace deal is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, critical examination of the India-Russia relationship will certainly persist in European and American capitals.